我靠,美国还是有明白人的啊。。。余茂春可真是卧底啊



散仙谷 http://www.webjb.org/webjb/sanxian/



送交者: heaven 于 2020-09-14 10:55:35

叹气! 当这一切都结束后,人们将会发明一个新词汇,比"白痴"还强烈的新词汇,来形容这届美国政府的政策。

基本上,在2018年的中美贸易战开始之前,美国与中国存在着产品贸易逆差,但是在服务贸易上与中国存在着巨大的顺差。美国从中国进口的制成品规模超过了中国从美国进口的石油和大豆规模,但是大约三分之一的贸易顺差通过旅游和教育的形式回流到美国——基本上就是中国中产阶级在美国度假以及送孩子到美国读书。除此之外,还有大量现金流从中国流到美国,在美国购买资产和投资(即富有的中国人在美国购买房子,富有的中国银行家投资硅谷的初创企业)。如果把所有这些现金流考虑进去,中美之间真正的"贸易逆差"只有大约100-200亿美元/月。

于是,美国这群绅士开始在2018年发起他们那"容易羸"的贸易战。首先他们单方面增加关税,这让中国人觉得美国这个贸易伙伴不可靠,所以为什么不从俄罗斯购买小麦和石油,从巴西购买大豆呢。然后他们开始对中国企业下手(华为和抖音),一夜之间,所有中国投资者都跑光了。然后他们拿中国学生和访问学者开刀,于是旅游业和教育变成零。同时,中国政府并没有对位于中国的美国企业和银行下手,所以所有的美国大银行和共同基金都把钱放到中国市场里去!然后美国政府采取了一揽子刺激计划,但是由于新冠疫情,人们省下了一部分,通过共同基金又投入到中国市场中去。所以在现在的美国,从最穷的人到最富有的人,一直到政府本身,都同时把更多钱交给了中国。

过去两个月,中国每个月的贸易顺差达到600亿美元,加上更少的服务逆差(另外150亿美元),加上更多的美国资本流向中国(另外150亿美元)!贸易和资本都是顺差!中国说八月出口超过预期,同比增长9.5%(链接)

基本上,单单通过贸易,中国每个月就增加了三分之一的法国月GDP,即便美国提高了关税,即便全球贸易因为疫情而所有下降!

这就好比,你对某个家伙说"A计划是不好的,B计划也是不好的",可是这家伙却挑选了A计划和B计划最槽糕的部分,从而制定了C计划,再掺和进自己的一些发明,于是产生了超级愚鑫的D计划!

这种差劲的计划即便是在你最槽糕的噩梦中都不会出现的! 脑袋正常的人都无法理解!

igh! When all this is over, people will have to invent a new word, stronger than “moron”, to describe the policies of this US Administration.

Basically, before the US-China trade war started in 2018, the US has a PRODUCT trade deficit, and a SERVICE TRADE SURPLUS with China. The US bought more manufactured goods from China than China buying oil and beans from the US, but then, about a third of the trade surplus was recycled back to the US through tourism and education - that’s basically the Chinese middle class vacationing in the US and sending their kids to college in the US. On top of that, there was significant cash flowing from China to the US in the form of asset purchase and investment (i.e., rich Chinese buying houses in the US. Rich Chinese bankers invest in start-ups in the Silicon Valley). If you take all these cash flows into consideration, the real “trade deficit” between China and the US was about $10 - 20 billion a month.

OK, so, this group of gentlemen started their little “easy-to-win” trade war in 2018. First they unilaterally jacked up tariffs, which persuaded the Chinese that their American trade partners are not reliable, so whey don’t we buy wheat and gas from Russia, and beans from Brazil. Then they went after the Chinese companies (Huawei, Tiktok), and practically overnight, all the Chinese investors ran away. Then they went after the Chinese students and visiting scholars, and immediately the tourism and the education sank to zero. In the meantime, the Chinese government is not going after American businesses and banks in China, so all the major US banks and mutual funds are pushing money into the Chinese market! Then the US Government did a Stimulus Package, and because of Covid, people saved portions of it, which cycles through Mutual Funds to more China investment. So now in the US, from the poorest to the richest, all the way to the government itself, are all handing China more money at the same time.

In the last two months, China has been running $60 billion monthly trade surplus, plus less service deficit (~ another $15 billion), plus more American capital flowing into China (~ another $15 billion)! Double Surplus in both Trade and Capital!

China says August exports beat expectations, jumping 9.5% from a year ago

Basically China is minting about a third of France’s monthly GDP every month just from trade alone, even with all that jacked up tariffs, and with global trade down because of the pandemic! It’s almost like, you try to tell the guy “plan A is bad. Plan B is also bad”, and this guy goes and picks the worst aspect of plan A and plan B to make a really bad plan C, and then throw in some extra of his own invention, to make it a super duper bad plan D! The kind of bad plan that you wouldn’t even dream of in your worst nightmare! A normal brain can not even comprehend this!
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