BOA Hartnett警告，如果皿煮党赢了参众两院
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送交者: new3T 于 2026-09-07 06:44:04
回答: Steve Hanke建议委内瑞拉美元化 由 于 2026-09-04 02:07:06
美股市降至少10%, AI泡沫可能破裂
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BofA Strategist Warns: A Democratic Sweep in the Midterms Could Send US Stocks Down Over 10% and Burst the AI Bubble
2026-09-06
Bank of America Securities Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett warns that if Democrats sweep both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, US stocks could fall more than 10%, the dollar would weaken, bond yields would decline, and the AI bubble could burst. Polymarket data shows the probability of a Democratic sweep has risen to 50%, far above the Republican sweep odds of 10%. He also notes that global bond yields have climbed to 20-year highs, arguing that long-duration yields—not equity narratives—are the true anchor for the AI trade. Hyperscaler free cash flow has already turned negative under capex commitments, meaning the AI bubble could pop "at any time." On positioning, he maintains a long commodities and gold stance, and recommends shorting financials and the dollar in a Democratic sweep scenario while rotating into long-duration bonds and defensive sectors.
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