就说价格问题。中国现在的要价与俄罗斯国内天然气的价格差不多。也难怪俄罗斯不同意。俄国内的价格一部分是国家补贴的。换成中国是卖方也很难同意。但中国现在的消费能力也不可能出价太高。还有LNG需求趋势是上升的，俄罗斯更是不能在长期合同中出价太低。
另一方面，中国在天然气承购量上会大大消减（reduce minimum annual offtake from standard 80% to 50%），这使得这么大的投资成为问题。这可能也是为什么俄罗斯坚持要走外蒙的路线？
Power of Siberia 2 Weaknesses
* Commercial Viability Crisis: Pricing negotiations stalled with China demanding rates near domestic Russian prices ($120 per 1,000 cubic meters or $3.5/MMBtu)
* Extreme Buyer Concentration: Creates dangerous dependence on a single customer (China), increasing from 23% to potentially 45% of China\'s gas imports
* Take-or-Pay Risk: China seeks to reduce minimum annual offtake from standard 80% to 50%, threatening project economics
*Transit Dependency: Mongolia\'s previous project suspension demonstrates additional political risk
* Uncertain Financing: Gazprom\'s $6.8 billion net loss in 2023 raises capital availability questions
===============================
https://themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/shell-just-drew-the-line?publication_id=3613583
Shell Just Drew The Line
65% LNG demand growth by 2050, Supermajors signing decades of LNG capex this month. The book is already in the trade.
Giacomo Prandelli
Jun 30, 2026
And China is building a second state terminal at Longkou to take sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG 2 volumes, deepening Moscow’s only major export channel as the EU ban approaches.
These are not deals chasing a news cycle, they are 25 year capital commitments. Each one lines up exactly with the demand profile Shell just drew.
=================================
另外中国刚在山东龙口扩建了LNG接收站，已准备接收俄罗斯北极LNG2号线的进口。加上之前广西北海接收站已经接收了41船LNG， 中国南北两个落点把被欧洲堵了快一年的需求俄罗斯北极LNG西路开通了。这些进口也帮助中国的需求，所以能在西伯利亚2号再继续拖。
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?for=pc&id=1868817263155401141
PipeChina’s Dalian terminal is also under discussion as a potential future receiving point to take sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG 2 volumes